Betting Odds On Hillary’s Replacement
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- December
- 9
Who will Gov. David Paterson choose to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate? That was the topic of today’s column, which I confess contained an error.
I said that whoever takes Hillary’s seat will have three years of job security before filling out her term. Actually, the new junior Senator will have one year to get ready for a special election in 2010, and then may run in 2012 when the term expires.
At any rate, I polled my ad hoc panel of political experts to set the odds on the possible candidates for the job. The handicappers are Mike Edelman, a Republican political consultant and TV analyst; Jeffry Binder, a partner in the Strategic Political Group; and Lawrence Otis Graham, an author, TV commentator and former Democratic candidate for Congress.
Here are their picks in full:
EDELMAN
Caroline Kennedy—2 to 1 “the emotional choice…smart pick”
Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo—150 to 1 “upstater but doesn’t help Paterson in 2010 as a running mate….no star.”
Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand of Hudson—150 to 1 “again, no star power…could be beat by Rudy.”
Atorney General Andrew Cuomo—Odds on “Paterson gets him ou of the way as a possible primary challenger in 2101…he has great pulling power as well as fundraising ability..”
Rep. Nita Lowey—200 to 1 ”…said she ain’t interested, plu her age works against her.”
Bronx Borough President Adlofo Carrion—250 to 1 ”…not a household name but does have one borough as a base…the hell with statewide recogntion.”
Rep. Lydia Velazquez of Queens—300 to 1 “never heard of her..neither have most new yorkers.”
Bill Clinton of Chappaqua—1000 to 1.
BINDER
Kennedy—- 2.5 to 1 “great symbolism…she is actually very competent.”
Higgins—10 to 1.
Gillibrand—25 to 1 “up and coming politician, but not ready for prime time.”
Cuomo—even money “it’s a two-fer for the Dems as the Dem-controlled legislature can back-fill that job and further strengthen its hold on NYS government at the statewide level. It also puts a potential gubernatorial rival in DC instead of Albany.”
Lowey—1000 to 1.
Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi—100 to 1.
Carrion—25 to 1.
Velazquez—100 to 1.
Clinton—1000 to 1 “Seems to me that the Clintons can now return to DC full time and will be saying good bye to Chappaqua and 125th Street…don’t think the former President wants to upstage his wife at this point in her career either. Would make for interesting Congressional hearings though.”
Rep. Carolyn Maloney of Manhattan—5 to 1 ”…the most underestimated politician of recent memory. NARAL and women’s groups love her.”
Clinton—1000 to 1.
GRAHAM
Kennedy—1 to 2 Caroline “She is smart, will be the emotional and cerebral choice, especially since her uncle is ill. When RFK jr dropped out, i think it was a sign that the Kennedy family and the establishment felt that Caroline earned this. Paterson and many other blacks credit Caroline for going out on the limb very early with her uncle and Oprah to make a very powerful and timely endorsement in the spring when many Dems were still afraid of speaking against Hillary Clinton.”
Higgins—50 to 1.
Gillibrand—20 to 1.
Cuomo—5 to 1.
Lowey—30 to 1
Suozzi—100 to 1.
Carrion—20 to 1.
Velazquez—10 to 1.
Clinton—50 to 1.



Phil Reisman is a veteran journalist and native of Westchester County. He began his career in 1977 as the head copy boy of a startup New York City newspaper that quickly went belly up. Reisman was not to blame for the newspaper's failure, or so he claims.







All three of these “experts” would do well to seek-out a remedial math course.
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